2022 mortgage interest rate developments and forecasting

What can you expect from the housing market in 2022?
More positive price developments. There are factors on top of scarcity that are influencing property price developments. Low mortgage interest rates, higher incomes, low unemployment, inflation, population growth, and the generally higher quality of the property supply to name just a few. Land and building costs are just downstream, residual factors. They don’t drive up prices on their own.
These parameters won’t worsen in the coming year, which is why we expect further price increases. A newly declared crisis and the introduction of fiscal and housing policy rules will only have a temporary impact. In contrast, the economic parameters will have a greater influence in the long term. True impact will come from building more houses.

Mortgage rates on the rise?
What we look at is long-term risk versus short-term gain. When it comes to mortgage rates, we have seen a downward trend over the last 20 years. Right now, rates seem to be more or less at their lowest. We don’t expect them to rise to the level they were 20 years ago. But… interest rates could go up, which means the risk of higher monthly costs.
Graph source: Hypotheekshop.nl

Fix the mortgage rate
We recommend locking in a fixed rate now, since it is at such a historic low. If you lock in a mortgage interest rate for 20 or 30 years, it will give you clarity around your monthly costs for the next few decades. Here is an example: with 30-year-fixed interest, energy label A and up to 70% of the market value financed, mortgage providers will offer you around 1.6%, which is a great rate.
We strongly recommend taking advantage of this moment if the opportunity comes, especially if you are buying a new home or have a variable, 1-year-fixed rate. It is a one-time change that will have a long-term effects.

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